Discounted Cash Flow

Alcoa Corp.

AA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

DCF estimate unavailable — only_5_profitable_out_of_10

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $-400.0m $-715.0m
2017 $11.7b $217.0m (154.2%) $819.0m (214.5%) 1.9% $1.18
2018 $13.4b (15.0%) $227.0m (4.6%) $49.0m (-94.0%) 1.7% (-9.1%) $1.22 (3.4%)
2019 $10.4b (-22.2%) $-1.1b (-595.6%) $307.0m (526.5%) -10.8% (-736.7%) $-6.07 (-597.5%)
2020 $9.3b (-11.0%) $-170.0m (84.9%) $41.0m (-86.6%) -1.8% (83.0%) $-0.91 (85.0%)
2021 $12.2b (30.9%) $429.0m (352.4%) $530.0m (1192.7%) 3.5% (292.8%) $2.30 (352.7%)
2022 $12.5b (2.5%) $-123.0m (-128.7%) $342.0m (-35.5%) -1.0% (-128.0%) $-0.68 (-129.6%)
2023 $10.6b (-15.3%) $-651.0m (-429.3%) $-440.0m (-228.7%) -6.2% (-524.6%) $-3.65 (-436.8%)
2024 $11.9b (12.7%) $60.0m (109.2%) $42.0m (109.5%) 0.5% (108.2%) $0.26 (107.1%)
2025 $12.8b (7.9%) $1.2b (1828.3%) $567.0m (1250.0%) 9.0% (1687.7%) $4.40 (1592.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model

only_5_profitable_out_of_10

Once the company meets all DCF eligibility criteria (sufficient history, profitability, growth trends), an estimate will become available automatically. No action is needed.