Discounted Cash Flow

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

AAOI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

DCF estimate unavailable — No positive free cash flow in recent history — company has not generated positive FCF

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $260.7m $31.2m $7.7m 12.0% $1.82
2017 $382.3m (46.6%) $74.0m (136.8%) $17.3m (126.0%) 19.3% (61.5%) $3.87 (112.6%)
2018 $267.5m (-30.0%) $-2.1m (-102.9%) $-57.8m (-433.9%) -0.8% (-104.1%) $-0.11 (-102.8%)
2019 $190.9m (-28.6%) $-66.0m (-2977.8%) $-30.5m (47.2%) -34.6% (-4212.8%) $-3.31 (-2909.1%)
2020 $234.6m (22.9%) $-58.5m (11.5%) $-59.8m (-95.8%) -24.9% (28.0%) $-2.67 (19.3%)
2021 $211.6m (-9.8%) $-54.2m (7.3%) $-19.6m (67.2%) -25.6% (-2.8%) $-2.01 (24.7%)
2022 $222.8m (5.3%) $-66.4m (-22.6%) $-17.2m (12.2%) -29.8% (-16.4%) $-2.38 (-18.4%)
2023 $217.6m (-2.3%) $-56.0m (15.6%) $-17.0m (1.3%) -25.8% (13.6%) $-1.75 (26.5%)
2024 $249.4m (14.6%) $-186.7m (-233.2%) $-112.9m (-564.0%) -74.9% (-190.8%) $-4.50 (-157.1%)
2025 $455.7m (82.8%) $-38.2m (79.5%) $-353.6m (-213.1%) -8.4% (88.8%) $-0.64 (85.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model

No positive free cash flow in recent history — company has not generated positive FCF

Once the company meets all DCF eligibility criteria (sufficient history, profitability, growth trends), an estimate will become available automatically. No action is needed.