Discounted Cash Flow
Aaon, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $384.0m | $53.4m | $63.9m | 13.9% | $1.01 |
| 2017 | $405.2m (5.5%) | $54.5m (2.1%) | $58.0m (-9.3%) | 13.4% (-3.3%) | $1.04 (3.0%) |
| 2018 | $433.9m (7.1%) | $42.6m (-21.9%) | $54.9m (-5.4%) | 9.8% (-27.1%) | $0.81 (-22.1%) |
| 2019 | $469.3m (8.2%) | $53.7m (26.2%) | $97.9m (78.5%) | 11.4% (16.7%) | $1.03 (27.2%) |
| 2020 | $514.6m (9.6%) | $79.0m (47.1%) | $128.8m (31.5%) | 15.4% (34.2%) | $1.51 (46.6%) |
| 2021 | $534.5m (3.9%) | $58.8m (-25.6%) | $61.2m (-52.5%) | 11.0% (-28.4%) | $1.12 (-25.8%) |
| 2022 | $888.8m (66.3%) | $100.4m (70.8%) | $-49.8m (-181.4%) | 11.3% (2.7%) | $1.89 (68.7%) |
| 2023 | $1.2b (31.5%) | $177.6m (77.0%) | $2.9m (105.9%) | 15.2% (34.6%) | $2.19 (15.9%) |
| 2024 | $1.2b (2.7%) | $168.6m (-5.1%) | $-83.4m (-2939.0%) | 14.0% (-7.6%) | $2.07 (-5.5%) |
| 2025 | $1.4b (20.1%) | $107.6m (-36.2%) | $-204.4m (-145.2%) | 7.5% (-46.9%) | $1.32 (-36.2%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.