Discounted Cash Flow

Aaon, Inc.

AAON · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $384.0m $53.4m $63.9m 13.9% $1.01
2017 $405.2m (5.5%) $54.5m (2.1%) $58.0m (-9.3%) 13.4% (-3.3%) $1.04 (3.0%)
2018 $433.9m (7.1%) $42.6m (-21.9%) $54.9m (-5.4%) 9.8% (-27.1%) $0.81 (-22.1%)
2019 $469.3m (8.2%) $53.7m (26.2%) $97.9m (78.5%) 11.4% (16.7%) $1.03 (27.2%)
2020 $514.6m (9.6%) $79.0m (47.1%) $128.8m (31.5%) 15.4% (34.2%) $1.51 (46.6%)
2021 $534.5m (3.9%) $58.8m (-25.6%) $61.2m (-52.5%) 11.0% (-28.4%) $1.12 (-25.8%)
2022 $888.8m (66.3%) $100.4m (70.8%) $-49.8m (-181.4%) 11.3% (2.7%) $1.89 (68.7%)
2023 $1.2b (31.5%) $177.6m (77.0%) $2.9m (105.9%) 15.2% (34.6%) $2.19 (15.9%)
2024 $1.2b (2.7%) $168.6m (-5.1%) $-83.4m (-2939.0%) 14.0% (-7.6%) $2.07 (-5.5%)
2025 $1.4b (20.1%) $107.6m (-36.2%) $-204.4m (-145.2%) 7.5% (-46.9%) $1.32 (-36.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model