Discounted Cash Flow
Advance Auto Parts Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $9.4b | $475.5m | $411.0m | 5.1% | $6.44 |
| 2018 | $9.6b (2.2%) | $423.8m (-10.9%) | $617.3m (50.2%) | 4.4% (-12.8%) | $5.75 (-10.7%) |
| 2019 | $9.7b (1.3%) | $486.9m (14.9%) | $596.8m (-3.3%) | 5.0% (13.4%) | $6.87 (19.5%) |
| 2020 | $10.1b (4.1%) | $493.0m (1.3%) | $702.1m (17.7%) | 4.9% (-2.7%) | $7.17 (4.4%) |
| 2021 | $10.1b (0.0%) | $493.0m (0.0%) | $702.1m (0.0%) | 4.9% (0.0%) | $7.17 (0.0%) |
| 2022 | $11.2b (10.4%) | $501.9m (1.8%) | $688.2m (-2.0%) | 4.5% (-7.8%) | $8.32 (16.0%) |
| 2023 | $11.3b (1.2%) | $29.7m (-94.1%) | $45.0m (-93.5%) | 0.3% (-94.1%) | $0.50 (-94.0%) |
| 2024 | $9.1b (-19.4%) | $-335.8m (-1229.3%) | $-96.2m (-313.9%) | -3.7% (-1501.6%) | $-5.63 (-1226.0%) |
| 2025 | $8.6b (-5.4%) | $44.0m (113.1%) | $-298.0m (-209.9%) | 0.5% (113.9%) | $0.73 (113.0%) |
| 2026 | $8.6b (0.0%) | $44.0m (0.0%) | $-298.0m (0.0%) | 0.5% (0.0%) | $0.73 (0.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.