Discounted Cash Flow

Apple Inc.

AAPL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $215.6b $45.7b $53.1b 21.2% $2.09
2017 $229.2b (6.3%) $48.4b (5.8%) $51.1b (-3.7%) 21.1% (-0.4%) $2.32 (11.0%)
2018 $265.6b (15.9%) $59.5b (23.1%) $64.1b (25.4%) 22.4% (6.3%) $3.00 (29.6%)
2019 $260.2b (-2.0%) $55.3b (-7.2%) $58.9b (-8.1%) 21.2% (-5.2%) $2.99 (-0.3%)
2020 $274.5b (5.5%) $57.4b (3.9%) $73.4b (24.6%) 20.9% (-1.5%) $3.31 (10.6%)
2021 $365.8b (33.3%) $94.7b (64.9%) $93.0b (26.7%) 25.9% (23.8%) $5.67 (71.3%)
2022 $394.3b (7.8%) $99.8b (5.4%) $111.4b (19.9%) 25.3% (-2.2%) $6.15 (8.5%)
2023 $383.3b (-2.8%) $97.0b (-2.8%) $99.6b (-10.6%) 25.3% (-0.0%) $6.16 (0.2%)
2024 $391.0b (2.0%) $93.7b (-3.4%) $108.8b (9.3%) 24.0% (-5.3%) $6.11 (-0.8%)
2025 $416.2b (6.4%) $112.0b (19.5%) $98.8b (-9.2%) 26.9% (12.3%) $7.49 (22.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model