Discounted Cash Flow

Airbnb, Inc.

ABNB · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2019 $4.8b $-674.3m $222.7m -14.0% $-5.18
2020 $3.4b (-29.7%) $-4.6b (-579.9%) $-629.7m (-382.7%) -135.7% (-867.1%) $-32.24 (-522.4%)
2021 $6.0b (77.4%) $-352.0m (92.3%) $2.2b (443.7%) -5.9% (95.7%) $-1.14 (96.5%)
2022 $8.4b (40.2%) $1.9b (637.7%) $3.4b (57.3%) 22.5% (483.6%) $2.97 (360.5%)
2023 $9.9b (18.1%) $4.8b (153.1%) $3.9b (14.1%) 48.3% (114.4%) $7.52 (153.3%)
2024 $11.1b (11.9%) $2.6b (-44.7%) $4.5b (16.3%) 23.9% (-50.6%) $4.19 (-44.3%)
2025 $12.2b (10.3%) $2.5b (-5.2%) $4.6b (2.8%) 20.5% (-14.0%) $4.10 (-2.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model