Discounted Cash Flow

Arbor Realty Trust Inc. REIT

ABR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $116.2m $42.8m $-197.6m 36.8% $0.83
2017 $156.2m (34.4%) $65.8m (53.8%) $460.8m (333.2%) 42.2% (14.4%) $1.14 (37.3%)
2018 $251.8m (61.2%) $108.3m (64.5%) $-37.7m (-108.2%) 43.0% (2.1%) $1.54 (35.1%)
2019 $315.9m (25.5%) $121.1m (11.8%) $-226.5m (-500.3%) 38.3% (-10.9%) $1.30 (-15.6%)
2020 $339.5m (7.4%) $163.4m (35.0%) $55.2m (124.4%) 48.1% (25.6%) $1.44 (10.8%)
2021 $466.1m (37.3%) $317.4m (94.3%) $216.8m (293.1%) 68.1% (41.5%) $2.30 (59.7%)
2022 $948.4m (103.5%) $284.8m (-10.3%) $1.1b (407.1%) 30.0% (-55.9%) $1.72 (-25.2%)
2023 $1.3b (40.4%) $330.1m (15.9%) $235.9m (-78.6%) 24.8% (-17.4%) $1.79 (4.1%)
2024 $1.2b (-12.3%) $223.3m (-32.4%) $461.5m (95.7%) 19.1% (-22.9%) $1.18 (-34.1%)
2025 $940.0m (-19.5%) $107.4m (-51.9%) $372.4m (-19.3%) 11.4% (-40.2%) $0.56 (-52.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model