Discounted Cash Flow

Arcosa, Inc.

ACA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $1.5b $89.7m $79.6m 6.1% $1.84
2018 $1.5b (-0.1%) $75.7m (-15.6%) $73.7m (-7.4%) 5.2% (-15.5%) $1.55 (-15.6%)
2019 $1.7b (18.9%) $113.3m (49.7%) $273.4m (271.0%) 6.5% (25.8%) $2.37 (52.5%)
2020 $1.9b (11.4%) $106.6m (-5.9%) $177.8m (-35.0%) 5.5% (-15.6%) $2.22 (-6.1%)
2021 $2.0b (5.2%) $69.6m (-34.7%) $81.4m (-54.2%) 3.4% (-37.9%) $1.45 (-34.8%)
2022 $2.2b (10.1%) $245.8m (253.2%) $36.3m (-55.4%) 11.0% (220.7%) $5.10 (252.4%)
2023 $2.3b (2.9%) $159.2m (-35.2%) $57.5m (58.4%) 6.9% (-37.1%) $3.28 (-35.6%)
2024 $2.6b (11.4%) $93.7m (-41.1%) $312.3m (443.1%) 3.6% (-47.1%) $1.93 (-41.3%)
2025 $2.9b (12.2%) $208.4m (122.4%) $175.5m (-43.8%) 7.2% (98.2%) $4.26 (121.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model