Discounted Cash Flow

Accel Entertainment, Inc.

ACEL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $248.4m $8.3m $9.5m 3.3% $0.15
2018 $332.0m (33.6%) $10.8m (30.0%) $21.1m (122.8%) 3.3% (-2.7%) $0.19 (26.7%)
2019 $424.4m (27.8%) $-5.9m (-154.3%) $24.8m (17.4%) -1.4% (-142.5%) $-0.09 (-147.4%)
2020 $316.4m (-25.5%) $-13.0m (-121.4%) $-29.5m (-219.0%) -4.1% (-197.0%) $-0.16 (-77.8%)
2021 $734.7m (132.2%) $31.6m (343.1%) $81.0m (374.9%) 4.3% (204.7%) $0.34 (312.5%)
2022 $969.8m (32.0%) $74.1m (134.8%) $60.6m (-25.2%) 7.6% (77.9%) $0.82 (140.5%)
2023 $1.2b (20.7%) $45.6m (-38.5%) $50.8m (-16.2%) 3.9% (-49.0%) $0.53 (-35.1%)
2024 $1.2b (5.2%) $35.3m (-22.7%) $54.7m (7.6%) 2.9% (-26.5%) $0.42 (-20.6%)
2025 $1.3b (8.1%) $51.5m (46.0%) $62.0m (13.4%) 3.9% (35.0%) $0.60 (43.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model