Discounted Cash Flow
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $4.5b | $692.7m | $1.4b | 15.5% | $5.50 |
| 2017 | $5.6b (26.1%) | $619.3m (-10.6%) | $1.1b (-21.1%) | 11.0% (-29.1%) | $4.21 (-23.5%) |
| 2018 | $5.5b (-3.1%) | $758.0m (22.4%) | $1.5b (40.4%) | 13.9% (26.4%) | $1.76 (-58.2%) |
| 2019 | $6.9b (27.1%) | $1.6b (115.9%) | $2.0b (31.5%) | 23.6% (69.8%) | $3.97 (125.6%) |
| 2020 | $8.5b (22.8%) | $1.4b (-14.1%) | $2.8b (41.6%) | 16.5% (-30.1%) | $3.38 (-14.9%) |
| 2021 | $9.2b (8.7%) | $2.2b (53.5%) | $3.4b (19.0%) | 23.3% (41.2%) | $5.34 (58.0%) |
| 2022 | $9.6b (3.9%) | $1.5b (-31.5%) | $3.8b (11.2%) | 15.4% (-34.1%) | $3.90 (-27.0%) |
| 2023 | $13.6b (41.8%) | $4.4b (200.8%) | $5.7b (51.3%) | 32.6% (112.1%) | $11.94 (206.2%) |
| 2024 | $17.4b (27.9%) | $4.3b (-2.9%) | $6.6b (16.2%) | 24.7% (-24.1%) | $11.47 (-3.9%) |
| 2025 | $19.9b (14.3%) | $4.4b (2.0%) | $6.1b (-7.5%) | 22.1% (-10.7%) | $11.83 (3.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.