Discounted Cash Flow

Adobe Inc.

ADBE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.9b $1.2b $2.0b 20.0% $2.35
2017 $7.3b (24.7%) $1.7b (44.9%) $2.7b (37.0%) 23.2% (16.2%) $3.43 (46.0%)
2018 $9.0b (23.7%) $2.6b (52.9%) $3.8b (37.6%) 28.7% (23.7%) $5.28 (53.9%)
2019 $11.2b (23.7%) $3.0b (13.9%) $4.0b (7.0%) 26.4% (-7.9%) $6.07 (15.0%)
2020 $12.9b (15.2%) $5.3b (78.2%) $5.3b (31.8%) 40.9% (54.7%) $10.94 (80.2%)
2021 $15.8b (22.7%) $4.8b (-8.3%) $6.9b (29.7%) 30.5% (-25.3%) $10.10 (-7.7%)
2022 $17.6b (11.5%) $4.8b (-1.4%) $7.4b (7.5%) 27.0% (-11.6%) $10.13 (0.3%)
2023 $19.4b (10.2%) $5.4b (14.1%) $6.9b (-6.1%) 28.0% (3.5%) $11.87 (17.2%)
2024 $21.5b (10.8%) $5.6b (2.4%) $7.9b (13.4%) 25.9% (-7.6%) $12.43 (4.7%)
2025 $23.8b (10.5%) $7.1b (28.2%) $9.9b (25.1%) 30.0% (16.0%) $16.73 (34.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model