Discounted Cash Flow

Agree Realty Corp. REIT

ADC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $91.5m $45.1m $61.7m 49.3% $1.97
2017 $116.6m (27.3%) $58.1m (28.8%) $82.2m (33.2%) 49.9% (1.1%) $2.09 (6.1%)
2018 $148.2m (27.1%) $58.2m (0.1%) $93.2m (13.4%) 39.3% (-21.3%) $1.80 (-13.9%)
2019 $187.5m (26.5%) $80.1m (37.7%) $-576.2m (-717.9%) 42.7% (8.8%) $1.96 (8.9%)
2020 $248.6m (32.6%) $91.4m (14.1%) $91.4m (115.9%) 36.8% (-13.9%) $1.76 (-10.2%)
2021 $339.3m (36.5%) $122.3m (33.8%) $-1.1b (-1351.6%) 36.0% (-2.0%) $1.79 (1.7%)
2022 $429.8m (26.7%) $152.4m (24.7%) $-1.2b (-8.2%) 35.5% (-1.6%) $1.84 (2.8%)
2023 $537.5m (25.1%) $170.0m (11.5%) $-808.4m (34.7%) 31.6% (-10.8%) $1.70 (-7.6%)
2024 $617.1m (14.8%) $189.2m (11.3%) $-442.5m (45.3%) 30.7% (-3.0%) $1.79 (5.3%)
2025 $718.4m (16.4%) $204.3m (8.0%) $504.1m (213.9%) 28.4% (-7.2%) $1.77 (-1.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model