Discounted Cash Flow

Analog Devices Inc.

ADI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $3.4b $861.7m $1.2b 25.2% $1.66
2017 $5.1b (49.3%) $727.3m (-15.6%) $908.5m (-21.2%) 14.2% (-43.5%) $1.77 (6.6%)
2018 $6.2b (21.4%) $1.5b (105.6%) $2.2b (140.8%) 24.1% (69.4%) $1.89 (6.8%)
2019 $6.0b (-3.4%) $1.4b (-8.9%) $2.0b (-9.6%) 22.8% (-5.7%) $3.68 (94.7%)
2020 $5.6b (-6.5%) $1.2b (-10.4%) $1.8b (-6.8%) 21.8% (-4.2%) $3.31 (-10.1%)
2021 $7.3b (30.6%) $1.4b (13.9%) $2.4b (29.8%) 19.0% (-12.8%) $3.50 (5.7%)
2022 $12.0b (64.2%) $2.7b (97.7%) $3.8b (57.9%) 22.9% (20.4%) $5.29 (51.1%)
2023 $12.3b (2.4%) $3.3b (20.6%) $3.6b (-5.8%) 26.9% (17.7%) $6.60 (24.8%)
2024 $9.4b (-23.4%) $1.6b (-50.7%) $3.1b (-12.2%) 17.3% (-35.6%) $3.30 (-50.0%)
2025 $11.0b (16.9%) $2.3b (38.7%) $4.3b (37.0%) 20.6% (18.6%) $4.59 (39.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model