Discounted Cash Flow

Autodesk, Inc.

ADSK · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $2.0b $-582.1m $93.7m -28.7% $-2.61
2018 $2.1b (1.3%) $-566.9m (2.6%) $-49.8m (-153.1%) -27.6% (3.8%) $-2.58 (1.1%)
2019 $2.6b (25.0%) $-80.8m (85.7%) $310.1m (722.7%) -3.1% (88.6%) $-0.37 (85.7%)
2020 $3.3b (27.4%) $214.5m (365.5%) $1.4b (339.2%) 6.6% (308.4%) $0.98 (364.9%)
2021 $3.8b (15.8%) $1.2b (463.3%) $1.3b (-1.2%) 31.9% (386.6%) $5.51 (462.2%)
2022 $4.4b (15.7%) $497.0m (-58.9%) $1.5b (9.6%) 11.3% (-64.5%) $2.26 (-59.0%)
2023 $5.0b (14.1%) $823.0m (65.6%) $2.0b (37.7%) 16.4% (45.1%) $3.81 (68.6%)
2024 $5.5b (9.8%) $906.0m (10.1%) $1.3b (-36.9%) 16.5% (0.2%) $4.23 (11.0%)
2025 $6.1b (11.5%) $1.1b (22.7%) $1.6b (22.2%) 18.1% (10.0%) $5.17 (22.2%)
2026 $7.2b (17.5%) $1.1b (1.1%) $2.4b (53.7%) 15.6% (-14.0%) $5.28 (2.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model