Discounted Cash Flow

ADT Inc.

ADT · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $539.0m
2017 $4.3b $342.6m $1.5b (171.1%) 7.9% $0.53
2018 $4.6b (6.2%) $-609.2m (-277.8%) $1.7b (13.7%) -13.3% (-267.5%) $-0.81 (-252.8%)
2019 $5.1b (11.9%) $-424.1m (30.4%) $1.7b (3.2%) -8.3% (37.8%) $-0.57 (29.6%)
2020 $5.3b (3.7%) $-632.2m (-49.0%) $1.2b (-29.4%) -11.9% (-43.7%) $0.21 (136.8%)
2021 $5.3b (-0.1%) $-340.8m (46.1%) $1.5b (22.5%) -6.4% (46.0%) $-0.82 (-490.5%)
2022 $6.4b (20.5%) $132.7m (138.9%) $132.7m (-91.0%) 2.1% (132.3%) $0.38 (146.3%)
2023 $5.0b (-22.1%) $463.0m (249.0%) $1.5b (1016.6%) 9.3% (348.0%) $1.02 (168.4%)
2024 $4.9b (-1.7%) $501.1m (8.2%) $1.7b (16.2%) 10.2% (10.1%) $1.12 (9.8%)
2025 $5.1b (4.7%) $596.0m (18.9%) $1.7b (-0.7%) 11.6% (13.6%) $1.44 (28.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model