Discounted Cash Flow

American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

AEO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $3.6b $212.4m $204.1m 5.9%
2018 $3.8b (5.1%) $204.2m (-3.9%) $225.0m (10.2%) 5.4% (-8.6%)
2019 $4.0b (6.3%) $261.9m (28.3%) $267.6m (19.0%) 6.5% (20.6%)
2020 $4.3b (6.8%) $191.3m (-27.0%) $205.1m (-23.4%) 4.4% (-31.6%)
2021 $3.8b (-12.7%) $-209.3m (-209.4%) $74.5m (-63.7%) -5.6% (-225.4%)
2022 $5.0b (33.3%) $419.6m (300.5%) $69.8m (-6.3%) 8.4% (250.4%)
2023 $5.0b (-0.4%) $125.1m (-70.2%) $145.9m (109.0%) 2.5% (-70.1%)
2024 $5.3b (5.4%) $170.0m (35.9%) $406.3m (178.4%) 3.2% (28.9%)
2025 $5.3b (1.3%) $329.4m (93.7%) $254.3m (-37.4%) 6.2% (91.3%)
2026 $5.5b (4.1%) $192.0m (-41.7%) $-263.7m (-203.7%) 3.5% (-44.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model