Discounted Cash Flow

American Financial Group Inc.

AFG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $6.5b $649.0m $1.1b 10.0% $7.47
2017 $6.9b (5.6%) $475.0m (-26.8%) $1.8b (56.9%) 6.9% (-30.7%) $5.40 (-27.7%)
2018 $7.2b (4.2%) $530.0m (11.6%) $2.1b (15.5%) 7.4% (7.1%) $5.95 (10.2%)
2019 $8.2b (15.2%) $897.0m (69.2%) $2.5b (17.9%) 10.9% (46.9%) $9.98 (67.7%)
2020 $7.9b (-4.0%) $732.0m (-18.4%) $2.2b (-11.1%) 9.3% (-15.0%) $8.25 (-17.3%)
2021 $6.6b (-17.2%) $2.0b (172.5%) $1.7b (-21.5%) 30.4% (229.0%) $23.44 (184.1%)
2022 $7.0b (7.4%) $898.0m (-55.0%) $1.2b (-32.7%) 12.8% (-58.1%) $10.55 (-55.0%)
2023 $7.8b (11.2%) $852.0m (-5.1%) $2.0b (70.9%) 10.9% (-14.7%) $10.06 (-4.6%)
2024 $8.3b (6.3%) $887.0m (4.1%) $1.2b (-41.5%) 10.7% (-2.1%) $10.57 (5.1%)
2025 $8.2b (-1.8%) $842.0m (-5.1%) $1.5b (33.1%) 10.3% (-3.3%) $10.08 (-4.6%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model