Discounted Cash Flow

Aflac Inc.

AFL · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $22.6b $2.7b $6.0b 11.8% $6.46
2017 $21.7b (-4.0%) $4.6b (73.1%) $6.1b (2.4%) 21.2% (80.3%) $11.63 (80.0%)
2018 $21.8b (0.4%) $2.9b (-36.6%) $6.0b (-1.9%) 13.4% (-36.8%) $3.79 (-67.4%)
2019 $22.3b (2.5%) $3.3b (13.2%) $5.5b (-9.3%) 14.8% (10.4%) $4.45 (17.4%)
2020 $22.1b (-0.7%) $4.8b (44.6%) $6.0b (9.2%) 21.6% (45.7%) $6.69 (50.3%)
2021 $22.1b (-0.2%) $4.3b (-9.5%) $5.1b (-15.2%) 19.6% (-9.3%) $6.42 (-4.0%)
2022 $19.5b (-11.8%) $4.2b (-2.9%) $3.9b (-23.2%) 21.5% (10.1%) $6.62 (3.1%)
2023 $18.7b (-4.1%) $4.7b (10.9%) $3.2b (-17.8%) 24.9% (15.7%) $7.81 (18.0%)
2024 $18.9b (1.2%) $5.4b (16.8%) $2.7b (-15.1%) 28.8% (15.4%) $9.68 (23.9%)
2025 $17.2b (-9.3%) $3.6b (-33.0%) $2.6b (-5.6%) 21.2% (-26.1%) $6.84 (-29.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model