Discounted Cash Flow

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AGO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.7b $881.0m $-141.0m 52.5% $6.61
2017 $1.7b (3.7%) $730.0m (-17.1%) $433.0m (407.1%) 42.0% (-20.1%) $6.05 (-8.5%)
2018 $1.0b (-42.4%) $521.0m (-28.6%) $462.0m (6.7%) 52.0% (23.9%) $4.73 (-21.8%)
2019 $22.0m (-97.8%) $402.0m (-22.8%) $-509.0m (-210.2%) 1827.3% (3414.3%) $4.04 (-14.6%)
2020 $89.0m (304.5%) $362.0m (-10.0%) $-853.0m (-67.6%) 406.7% (-77.7%) $4.22 (4.5%)
2021 $88.0m (-1.1%) $389.0m (7.5%) $-1.9b (-127.1%) 442.0% (8.7%) $5.29 (25.4%)
2022 $93.0m (5.7%) $124.0m (-68.1%) $124.0m (106.4%) 133.3% (-69.8%) $1.95 (-63.1%)
2023 $53.0m (-43.0%) $739.0m (496.0%) $461.0m (271.8%) 1394.3% (945.8%) $12.54 (543.1%)
2024 $0 (-100.0%) $376.0m (-49.1%) $47.0m (-89.8%) $7.01 (-44.1%)
2025 $0 $503.0m (33.8%) $259.0m (451.1%) $10.39 (48.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model