Discounted Cash Flow

Argan Inc.

AGX · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $675.0m $70.3m $256.2m 10.4% $4.67
2018 $892.8m (32.3%) $72.0m (2.4%) $-77.6m (-130.3%) 8.1% (-22.6%) $4.64 (-0.6%)
2019 $482.2m (-46.0%) $52.0m (-27.7%) $-120.9m (-55.8%) 10.8% (33.8%) $3.34 (-28.0%)
2020 $239.0m (-50.4%) $-42.7m (-182.0%) $46.5m (138.5%) -17.9% (-265.5%) $-2.73 (-181.8%)
2021 $392.2m (64.1%) $23.9m (155.9%) $173.0m (272.0%) 6.1% (134.0%) $1.52 (155.7%)
2022 $509.4m (29.9%) $38.2m (60.3%) $27.0m (-84.4%) 7.5% (23.5%) $2.43 (59.9%)
2023 $455.0m (-10.7%) $33.1m (-13.5%) $-33.4m (-223.9%) 7.3% (-3.1%) $2.35 (-3.4%)
2024 $573.3m (26.0%) $32.4m (-2.2%) $114.1m (441.3%) 5.6% (-22.4%) $2.42 (3.0%)
2025 $874.2m (52.5%) $85.5m (164.1%) $161.0m (41.1%) 9.8% (73.2%) $6.35 (162.5%)
2026 $944.6m (8.1%) $137.8m (61.2%) $410.8m (155.2%) 14.6% (49.2%) $10.00 (57.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model