Discounted Cash Flow

American International Group, Inc.

AIG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income
Dividends

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $52.4b $68.0m $-67.6b 0.1% $1.76
2017 $49.5b (-5.4%) $51.4m (-24.4%) $-71.8b (-6.3%) 0.1% (-20.1%) $1.27 (-27.8%)
2018 $47.4b (-4.3%) $97.7m (90.1%) $-58.5b (18.6%) 0.2% (98.7%) $-0.01 (-100.8%)
2019 $49.7b (5.0%) $102.9m (5.4%) $-69.8b (-19.4%) 0.2% (0.4%) $3.79 (38000.0%)
2020 $43.7b (-12.1%) $49.1m (-52.3%) $997.6m (101.4%) 0.1% (-45.8%) $-6.88 (-281.5%)
2021 $52.1b (19.0%) $-390.3m (-895.4%) $6.2b (523.6%) -0.7% (-768.3%) $10.95 (259.2%)
2022 $56.4b (8.4%) $46.3m (111.8%) $4.6b (-26.8%) 0.1% (110.9%) $13.16 (20.2%)
2023 $46.8b (-17.1%) $65.5m (41.7%) $6.9b (50.8%) 0.1% (70.9%) $5.02 (-61.9%)
2024 $27.3b (-41.8%) $161.7m (146.7%) $3.3b (-51.8%) 0.6% (323.8%) $-2.19 (-143.6%)
2025 $26.8b (-1.7%) $103.1m (-36.2%) $3.2b (-2.3%) 0.4% (-35.1%) $5.48 (350.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model