Discounted Cash Flow

AAR Corp.

AIR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.7b $47.7m $-56.3m 2.9% $1.37
2017 $1.8b (6.3%) $56.5m (18.4%) $-11.8m (79.0%) 3.2% (11.4%) $1.66 (21.2%)
2018 $1.7b (-1.1%) $15.6m (-72.4%) $42.3m (458.5%) 0.9% (-72.1%) $0.44 (-73.5%)
2019 $2.1b (17.4%) $7.5m (-51.9%) $50.0m (18.2%) 0.4% (-59.0%) $0.20 (-54.5%)
2020 $2.1b (1.0%) $4.4m (-41.3%) $-59.7m (-219.4%) 0.2% (-41.9%) $0.12 (-40.0%)
2021 $1.7b (-20.3%) $35.8m (713.6%) $93.9m (257.3%) 2.2% (920.3%) $1.01 (741.7%)
2022 $1.8b (10.1%) $78.7m (119.8%) $57.9m (-38.3%) 4.3% (99.6%) $2.20 (117.8%)
2023 $2.0b (9.4%) $90.2m (14.6%) $-6.2m (-110.7%) 4.5% (4.8%) $2.56 (16.4%)
2024 $2.3b (16.5%) $46.3m (-48.7%) $13.9m (324.2%) 2.0% (-55.9%) $1.30 (-49.2%)
2025 $2.8b (19.9%) $12.5m (-73.0%) $1.4m (-89.9%) 0.4% (-77.5%) $0.35 (-73.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model