Discounted Cash Flow
Arthur J Gallagher & Co.
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Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
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—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $5.6b | $414.4m | $404.3m | 7.4% | $2.33 |
| 2017 | $6.2b (10.1%) | $463.1m (11.8%) | $725.0m (79.3%) | 7.5% (1.5%) | $2.57 (10.3%) |
| 2018 | $6.9b (12.6%) | $633.5m (36.8%) | $640.7m (-11.6%) | 9.1% (21.5%) | $3.47 (35.0%) |
| 2019 | $7.2b (3.8%) | $668.8m (5.6%) | $980.4m (53.0%) | 9.3% (1.7%) | $3.60 (3.7%) |
| 2020 | $7.0b (-2.7%) | $818.8m (22.4%) | $1.7b (68.6%) | 11.7% (25.8%) | $4.29 (19.2%) |
| 2021 | $8.2b (17.2%) | $906.8m (10.7%) | $1.6b (-4.7%) | 11.0% (-5.5%) | $4.47 (4.2%) |
| 2022 | $8.6b (4.2%) | $1.1b (22.9%) | $1.9b (23.3%) | 13.0% (18.0%) | $5.30 (18.6%) |
| 2023 | $10.1b (17.8%) | $969.5m (-13.0%) | $1.8b (-5.4%) | 9.6% (-26.1%) | $4.51 (-14.9%) |
| 2024 | $11.6b (14.7%) | $1.5b (50.9%) | $2.4b (32.8%) | 12.7% (31.5%) | $6.63 (47.0%) |
| 2025 | $13.9b (20.7%) | $1.5b (2.1%) | $1.8b (-26.9%) | 10.7% (-15.3%) | $5.83 (-12.1%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.