Discounted Cash Flow

Alcon Inc. Foreign

ALC · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2010 $7.2b $2.5b $2.1b 34.5% $7.27
2017 $6.8b (-5.5%) $-127.0m (-105.1%) $803.0m (-61.1%) -1.9% (-105.4%) $0.52 (-92.8%)
2018 $7.2b (5.4%) $-300.0m (-136.2%) $616.0m (-23.3%) -4.2% (-124.1%) $-0.46 (-188.5%)
2019 $7.5b (5.0%) $-332.0m (-10.7%) $367.0m (-40.4%) -4.4% (-5.4%) $-1.34 (-191.3%)
2020 $6.8b (-9.0%) $-635.0m (-91.3%) $344.0m (-6.3%) -9.3% (-110.2%) $-1.09 (18.7%)
2021 $8.3b (21.3%) $418.0m (165.8%) $645.0m (87.5%) 5.0% (154.3%) $0.77 (170.6%)
2022 $8.7b (5.1%) $463.0m (10.8%) $581.0m (-9.9%) 5.3% (5.4%) $0.68 (-11.7%)
2023 $9.5b (8.5%) $832.0m (79.7%) $730.0m (25.6%) 8.8% (65.7%) $1.98 (191.2%)
2024 $9.9b (4.8%) $1.3b (51.0%) $1.6b (119.7%) 12.7% (44.0%) $2.06 (4.0%)
2025 $10.4b (4.9%) $980.0m (-22.0%) $1.6b (-0.6%) 9.4% (-25.7%) $1.99 (-3.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model