Discounted Cash Flow

Alamo Group Inc.

ALG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $844.7m $40.0m $65.8m 4.7% $3.50
2017 $912.4m (8.0%) $44.3m (10.7%) $57.3m (-13.0%) 4.9% (2.5%) $3.84 (9.7%)
2018 $1.0b (10.6%) $73.5m (65.8%) $-13.7m (-123.9%) 7.3% (50.0%) $6.30 (64.1%)
2019 $1.1b (10.9%) $62.9m (-14.4%) $57.5m (520.2%) 5.6% (-22.8%) $5.36 (-14.9%)
2020 $1.2b (4.0%) $56.6m (-10.0%) $166.5m (189.6%) 4.9% (-13.4%) $4.81 (-10.3%)
2021 $1.3b (14.7%) $80.2m (41.7%) $24.4m (-85.3%) 6.0% (23.6%) $6.78 (41.0%)
2022 $1.5b (13.4%) $101.9m (27.0%) $-16.6m (-168.1%) 6.7% (12.0%) $8.58 (26.5%)
2023 $1.7b (11.6%) $136.2m (33.6%) $93.4m (662.3%) 8.1% (19.7%) $11.42 (33.1%)
2024 $1.6b (-3.6%) $115.9m (-14.9%) $184.8m (97.8%) 7.1% (-11.7%) $9.69 (-15.1%)
2025 $1.6b (-1.5%) $103.8m (-10.5%) $146.9m (-20.5%) 6.5% (-9.1%) $8.64 (-10.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model