Discounted Cash Flow

Align Technology Inc.

ALGN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.1b $189.7m $177.1m 17.6% $2.38
2017 $1.5b (36.4%) $231.4m (22.0%) $242.8m (37.1%) 15.7% (-10.6%) $2.89 (21.4%)
2018 $2.0b (33.5%) $400.2m (72.9%) $331.4m (36.5%) 20.4% (29.6%) $5.00 (73.0%)
2019 $2.4b (22.4%) $442.8m (10.6%) $597.6m (80.3%) 18.4% (-9.6%) $5.57 (11.4%)
2020 $2.5b (2.7%) $1.8b (301.1%) $507.3m (-15.1%) 71.8% (290.5%) $22.55 (304.8%)
2021 $4.0b (59.9%) $772.0m (-56.5%) $771.4m (52.1%) 19.5% (-72.8%) $9.78 (-56.6%)
2022 $3.7b (-5.5%) $361.6m (-53.2%) $276.8m (-64.1%) 9.7% (-50.4%) $4.62 (-52.8%)
2023 $3.9b (3.4%) $445.1m (23.1%) $608.1m (119.6%) 11.5% (19.0%) $5.82 (26.0%)
2024 $4.0b (3.5%) $421.4m (-5.3%) $622.7m (2.4%) 10.5% (-8.6%) $5.63 (-3.3%)
2025 $4.0b (0.9%) $410.4m (-2.6%) $490.8m (-21.2%) 10.2% (-3.5%) $5.66 (0.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model