Discounted Cash Flow
Alaska AIR Group, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $5.9b | $814.0m | $708.0m | 13.7% | $6.59 |
| 2017 | $7.9b (33.8%) | $1.0b (27.0%) | $564.0m (-20.3%) | 13.0% (-5.0%) | $8.39 (27.3%) |
| 2018 | $8.3b (4.2%) | $437.0m (-57.7%) | $235.0m (-58.3%) | 5.3% (-59.4%) | $3.55 (-57.7%) |
| 2019 | $8.8b (6.3%) | $769.0m (76.0%) | $1.0b (336.6%) | 8.8% (65.6%) | $6.24 (75.8%) |
| 2020 | $3.6b (-59.4%) | $-1.3b (-272.2%) | $-440.0m (-142.9%) | -37.1% (-524.0%) | $-10.72 (-271.8%) |
| 2021 | $6.2b (73.2%) | $478.0m (136.1%) | $738.0m (267.7%) | 7.7% (120.8%) | $3.82 (135.6%) |
| 2022 | $9.6b (56.2%) | $58.0m (-87.9%) | $-253.0m (-134.3%) | 0.6% (-92.2%) | $0.46 (-88.0%) |
| 2023 | $10.4b (8.1%) | $235.0m (305.2%) | $-444.0m (-75.5%) | 2.3% (274.9%) | $1.84 (300.0%) |
| 2024 | $11.7b (12.6%) | $395.0m (68.1%) | $1.4b (414.4%) | 3.4% (49.3%) | $3.13 (70.1%) |
| 2025 | $14.2b (21.3%) | $100.0m (-74.7%) | $1.2b (-15.5%) | 0.7% (-79.1%) | $0.85 (-72.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.