Discounted Cash Flow

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

ALRM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $261.1m $10.2m $8.4m 3.9% $0.22
2017 $338.9m (29.8%) $29.3m (188.1%) $46.7m (453.3%) 8.6% (121.9%) $0.63 (186.4%)
2018 $420.5m (24.1%) $21.5m (-26.4%) $49.7m (6.4%) 5.1% (-40.7%) $0.45 (-28.6%)
2019 $502.4m (19.5%) $53.5m (148.7%) $27.8m (-44.1%) 10.7% (108.2%) $1.11 (146.7%)
2020 $618.0m (23.0%) $77.9m (45.4%) $85.9m (209.3%) 12.6% (18.2%) $1.59 (43.2%)
2021 $749.0m (21.2%) $52.3m (-32.9%) $92.1m (7.2%) 7.0% (-44.6%) $1.05 (-34.0%)
2022 $842.6m (12.5%) $56.3m (7.8%) $28.3m (-69.3%) 6.7% (-4.2%) $1.13 (7.6%)
2023 $881.7m (4.6%) $81.0m (43.9%) $128.4m (354.5%) 9.2% (37.5%) $1.63 (44.2%)
2024 $939.8m (6.6%) $124.1m (53.1%) $196.3m (52.8%) 13.2% (43.7%) $2.50 (53.4%)
2025 $1.0b (7.6%) $132.6m (6.8%) $137.0m (-30.2%) 13.1% (-0.7%) $2.66 (6.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model