Discounted Cash Flow

Alerus Financial Corp.

ALRS · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017 $75.6m $15.0m $44.9m 19.8% $1.10
2018 $87.7m (16.0%) $25.9m (72.4%) $49.8m (10.8%) 29.5% (48.7%) $1.88 (70.9%)
2019 $93.3m (6.4%) $29.5m (14.2%) $16.3m (-67.2%) 31.7% (7.4%) $1.96 (4.3%)
2020 $96.1m (3.0%) $44.7m (51.2%) $-26.1m (-259.5%) 46.5% (46.8%) $2.57 (31.1%)
2021 $92.7m (-3.6%) $52.7m (17.9%) $147.4m (665.4%) 56.9% (22.3%) $3.02 (17.5%)
2022 $115.6m (24.7%) $40.0m (-24.1%) $101.2m (-31.4%) 34.6% (-39.1%) $2.12 (-29.8%)
2023 $164.9m (42.7%) $11.7m (-70.8%) $25.8m (-74.5%) 7.1% (-79.5%) $0.59 (-72.2%)
2024 $221.6m (34.4%) $17.8m (52.0%) $16.6m (-35.7%) 8.0% (13.1%) $0.84 (42.4%)
2025 $279.6m (26.2%) $17.4m (-1.9%) $58.8m (254.6%) 6.2% (-22.3%) $0.69 (-17.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model