Discounted Cash Flow

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.

ALSN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.8b $214.9m $520.2m 11.7% $1.28
2017 $2.3b (22.9%) $504.0m (134.5%) $567.0m (9.0%) 22.3% (90.8%) $3.38 (164.1%)
2018 $2.7b (19.9%) $639.0m (26.8%) $737.0m (30.0%) 23.6% (5.7%) $4.81 (42.3%)
2019 $2.7b (-0.6%) $604.0m (-5.5%) $675.0m (-8.4%) 22.4% (-5.0%) $4.95 (2.9%)
2020 $2.1b (-22.9%) $299.0m (-50.5%) $446.0m (-33.9%) 14.4% (-35.8%) $2.62 (-47.1%)
2021 $2.4b (15.4%) $442.0m (47.8%) $460.0m (3.1%) 18.4% (28.1%) $4.13 (57.6%)
2022 $2.8b (15.3%) $531.0m (20.1%) $490.0m (6.5%) 19.2% (4.2%) $5.53 (33.9%)
2023 $3.0b (9.6%) $673.0m (26.7%) $659.0m (34.5%) 22.2% (15.6%) $7.48 (35.3%)
2024 $3.2b (6.3%) $731.0m (8.6%) $658.0m (-0.2%) 22.7% (2.2%) $8.40 (12.3%)
2025 $3.0b (-6.7%) $623.0m (-14.8%) $661.0m (0.5%) 20.7% (-8.7%) $7.42 (-11.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model