Discounted Cash Flow

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc.

AMG · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $2.2b $472.8m $1.0b 21.5% $8.73
2017 $2.3b (5.0%) $689.5m (45.8%) $1.2b (14.3%) 29.9% (38.8%) $12.30 (40.9%)
2018 $2.4b (3.2%) $243.6m (-64.7%) $1.1b (-2.6%) 10.2% (-65.8%) $4.55 (-63.0%)
2019 $2.2b (-5.8%) $15.7m (-93.6%) $919.5m (-18.0%) 0.7% (-93.2%) $0.31 (-93.2%)
2020 $2.0b (-9.5%) $202.2m (1187.9%) $1.0b (8.8%) 10.0% (1322.6%) $4.34 (1300.0%)
2021 $2.4b (19.0%) $565.7m (179.8%) $1.3b (25.0%) 23.4% (135.1%) $13.65 (214.5%)
2022 $2.3b (-3.4%) $1.1b (102.6%) $1.0b (-16.6%) 49.2% (109.8%) $29.77 (118.1%)
2023 $2.1b (-11.7%) $672.9m (-41.3%) $861.9m (-17.4%) 32.7% (-33.5%) $19.18 (-35.6%)
2024 $2.0b (-0.8%) $511.6m (-24.0%) $928.7m (7.8%) 25.1% (-23.3%) $16.45 (-14.2%)
2025 $2.1b (1.6%) $716.6m (40.1%) $967.1m (4.1%) 34.5% (37.8%) $25.18 (53.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model