Discounted Cash Flow

Amgen Inc.

AMGN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $23.0b $7.7b $9.6b 33.6% $10.32
2017 $22.8b (-0.6%) $2.0b (-74.4%) $10.5b (9.3%) 8.7% (-74.2%) $2.71 (-73.7%)
2018 $23.7b (3.9%) $8.4b (324.2%) $10.6b (0.4%) 35.3% (308.1%) $12.70 (368.6%)
2019 $23.4b (-1.6%) $7.8b (-6.6%) $8.5b (-19.2%) 33.6% (-5.0%) $12.96 (2.0%)
2020 $25.4b (8.8%) $7.3b (-7.4%) $9.9b (15.9%) 28.6% (-14.9%) $12.40 (-4.3%)
2021 $26.0b (2.2%) $5.9b (-18.9%) $8.4b (-15.2%) 22.7% (-20.6%) $10.34 (-16.6%)
2022 $26.3b (1.3%) $6.6b (11.2%) $8.8b (4.8%) 24.9% (9.7%) $12.18 (17.8%)
2023 $28.2b (7.1%) $6.7b (2.5%) $7.4b (-16.2%) 23.8% (-4.3%) $12.56 (3.1%)
2024 $33.4b (18.6%) $4.1b (-39.1%) $10.4b (41.2%) 12.2% (-48.6%) $7.62 (-39.3%)
2025 $36.8b (10.0%) $7.7b (88.5%) $8.1b (-22.1%) 21.0% (71.5%) $14.33 (88.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model