Discounted Cash Flow
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc.
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | $1.6b | $105.8m | $314.3m | 6.4% | $15.12 |
| 2018 | $2.0b (23.1%) | $137.5m (30.0%) | $76.5m (-75.7%) | 6.8% (5.6%) | $27.28 (80.4%) |
| 2019 | $2.3b (12.8%) | $-260.7m (-289.6%) | $39.0m (-49.0%) | -11.4% (-268.2%) | $-16.82 (-161.7%) |
| 2020 | $1.4b (-38.2%) | $-242.4m (7.0%) | $108.1m (177.0%) | -17.1% (-50.4%) | $-24.42 (-45.2%) |
| 2021 | $2.3b (59.5%) | $292.7m (220.8%) | $157.0m (45.2%) | 13.0% (175.7%) | $15.66 (164.1%) |
| 2022 | $4.1b (81.6%) | $1.6b (433.2%) | $1.2b (673.8%) | 38.0% (193.6%) | $82.82 (428.9%) |
| 2023 | $3.5b (-15.4%) | $845.5m (-45.8%) | $644.1m (-47.0%) | 24.4% (-36.0%) | $51.18 (-38.2%) |
| 2024 | $3.0b (-14.8%) | $210.8m (-75.1%) | $531.2m (-17.5%) | 7.1% (-70.7%) | $14.41 (-71.8%) |
| 2025 | $2.1b (-28.0%) | $-87.5m (-141.5%) | $38.8m (-92.7%) | -4.1% (-157.6%) | $-4.75 (-133.0%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.