Discounted Cash Flow

Amerisafe Inc.

AMSF · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $396.7m $77.9m $112.6m 19.6% $4.08
2017 $375.2m (-5.4%) $46.2m (-40.6%) $130.3m (15.8%) 12.3% (-37.2%) $2.41 (-40.9%)
2018 $377.8m (0.7%) $71.6m (54.9%) $97.1m (-25.5%) 19.0% (53.9%) $3.73 (54.8%)
2019 $370.4m (-2.0%) $92.7m (29.4%) $77.8m (-19.9%) 25.0% (32.0%) $4.82 (29.2%)
2020 $339.5m (-8.3%) $86.6m (-6.6%) $62.5m (-19.7%) 25.5% (1.9%) $4.49 (-6.8%)
2021 $315.9m (-6.9%) $65.8m (-24.1%) $36.7m (-41.3%) 20.8% (-18.4%) $3.40 (-24.3%)
2022 $294.7m (-6.7%) $55.6m (-15.4%) $26.1m (-28.8%) 18.9% (-9.4%) $2.89 (-15.0%)
2023 $306.9m (4.1%) $62.1m (11.7%) $29.3m (12.2%) 20.2% (7.3%) $3.24 (12.1%)
2024 $309.0m (0.7%) $55.4m (-10.7%) $23.4m (-20.3%) 17.9% (-11.4%) $2.91 (-10.2%)
2025 $317.3m (2.7%) $47.1m (-15.0%) $8.9m (-61.8%) 14.9% (-17.2%) $2.48 (-14.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model