Discounted Cash Flow

Amazon.com Inc.

AMZN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $136.0b $2.4b $9.7b 1.7% $5.01
2017 $177.9b (30.8%) $3.0b (27.9%) $6.5b (-33.2%) 1.7% (-2.2%) $6.32 (26.1%)
2018 $232.9b (30.9%) $10.1b (232.1%) $17.3b (167.0%) 4.3% (153.6%) $20.68 (227.2%)
2019 $280.5b (20.5%) $11.6b (15.0%) $-13.5b (-178.1%) 4.1% (-4.5%) $23.46 (13.4%)
2020 $386.1b (37.6%) $21.3b (84.1%) $25.9b (292.0%) 5.5% (33.8%) $42.64 (81.8%)
2021 $469.8b (21.7%) $33.4b (56.4%) $-14.7b (-156.8%) 7.1% (28.5%) $65.96 (54.7%)
2022 $514.0b (9.4%) $-2.7b (-108.2%) $-16.9b (-14.7%) -0.5% (-107.5%) $-0.27 (-100.4%)
2023 $574.8b (11.8%) $30.4b (1217.7%) $32.2b (290.7%) 5.3% (1099.5%) $2.95 (1192.6%)
2024 $638.0b (11.0%) $59.2b (94.7%) $32.9b (2.1%) 9.3% (75.5%) $5.66 (91.9%)
2025 $716.9b (12.4%) $77.7b (31.1%) $7.7b (-76.6%) 10.8% (16.7%) $7.29 (28.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model