Discounted Cash Flow

Autonation, Inc.

AN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $21.6b $430.5m $271.5m 2.0% $4.16
2017 $21.5b (-0.3%) $434.6m (1.0%) $230.0m (-15.3%) 2.0% (1.3%) $4.43 (6.5%)
2018 $21.4b (-0.6%) $396.0m (-8.9%) $124.0m (-46.1%) 1.8% (-8.4%) $4.34 (-2.0%)
2019 $21.3b (-0.4%) $450.0m (13.6%) $499.9m (303.1%) 2.1% (14.0%) $4.98 (14.7%)
2020 $20.4b (-4.4%) $381.6m (-15.2%) $1.1b (110.4%) 1.9% (-11.3%) $4.30 (-13.7%)
2021 $25.8b (26.7%) $1.4b (259.8%) $1.4b (34.3%) 5.3% (183.9%) $18.31 (325.8%)
2022 $27.0b (4.4%) $1.4b (0.3%) $1.3b (-5.2%) 5.1% (-3.9%) $24.30 (32.7%)
2023 $26.9b (-0.1%) $1.0b (-25.9%) $313.7m (-76.6%) 3.8% (-25.8%) $22.72 (-6.5%)
2024 $26.8b (-0.7%) $692.2m (-32.2%) $-13.8m (-104.4%) 2.6% (-31.7%) $16.92 (-25.5%)
2025 $27.6b (3.2%) $649.1m (-6.2%) $-197.5m (-1331.2%) 2.3% (-9.2%) $17.04 (0.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model