Discounted Cash Flow

Aon Plc.

AON · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $11.6b $1.4b $2.1b 12.0% $5.21
2017 $10.0b (-14.0%) $1.2b (-12.2%) $551.0m (-73.8%) 12.3% (2.1%) $4.74 (-9.0%)
2018 $10.8b (7.7%) $1.1b (-7.5%) $1.4b (162.4%) 10.5% (-14.1%) $4.62 (-2.5%)
2019 $11.0b (2.3%) $1.5b (35.1%) $1.6b (11.3%) 13.9% (32.1%) $6.42 (39.0%)
2020 $11.1b (0.5%) $2.0b (28.5%) $2.6b (64.1%) 17.8% (27.9%) $8.49 (32.2%)
2021 $12.2b (10.2%) $1.3b (-36.3%) $2.0b (-22.6%) 10.3% (-42.2%) $5.59 (-34.2%)
2022 $12.5b (2.3%) $2.6b (106.3%) $3.0b (47.8%) 20.7% (101.6%) $12.23 (118.8%)
2023 $13.4b (7.2%) $2.6b (-1.0%) $3.2b (5.3%) 19.2% (-7.6%) $12.60 (3.0%)
2024 $15.7b (17.4%) $2.7b (3.5%) $2.8b (-11.5%) 16.9% (-11.8%) $12.55 (-0.4%)
2025 $17.2b (9.4%) $3.7b (39.2%) $3.2b (14.2%) 21.5% (27.2%) $17.11 (36.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model