Discounted Cash Flow

APA Corp.

APA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2019 $302.0m $-3.6b $2.9b -1176.5% $-9.43
2020 $707.0m (134.1%) $-4.9b (-36.8%) $1.4b (-51.6%) -687.4% (41.6%) $-12.86 (-36.4%)
2021 $1.1b (53.0%) $973.0m (120.0%) $3.5b (151.9%) 89.9% (113.1%) $2.60 (120.2%)
2022 $11.1b (923.6%) $3.7b (277.6%) $4.9b (41.4%) 33.2% (-63.1%) $11.05 (325.0%)
2023 $16.6b (49.5%) $2.9b (-22.3%) $3.1b (-36.7%) 17.2% (-48.0%) $9.26 (-16.2%)
2024 $19.5b (17.6%) $804.0m (-71.8%) $3.6b (15.7%) 4.1% (-76.1%) $2.28 (-75.4%)
2025 $17.8b (-8.4%) $1.4b (78.4%) $4.5b (25.6%) 8.0% (94.7%) $3.99 (75.0%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model