Discounted Cash Flow

Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc.

APAM · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $720.9m $73.0m $267.4m 10.1% $1.57
2017 $795.6m (10.4%) $49.6m (-32.1%) $202.5m (-24.3%) 6.2% (-38.5%) $0.75 (-52.2%)
2018 $828.6m (4.1%) $158.3m (219.2%) $330.5m (63.2%) 19.1% (206.5%) $2.84 (278.7%)
2019 $799.0m (-3.6%) $156.5m (-1.1%) $289.3m (-12.5%) 19.6% (2.6%) $2.65 (-6.7%)
2020 $899.6m (12.6%) $212.6m (35.8%) $316.6m (9.4%) 23.6% (20.6%) $3.40 (28.3%)
2021 $1.2b (36.4%) $336.5m (58.3%) $396.1m (25.1%) 27.4% (16.0%) $5.10 (50.0%)
2022 $993.3m (-19.1%) $206.8m (-38.6%) $306.0m (-22.8%) 20.8% (-24.1%) $2.94 (-42.4%)
2023 $975.1m (-1.8%) $222.3m (7.5%) $250.8m (-18.0%) 22.8% (9.5%) $3.19 (8.5%)
2024 $1.1b (14.0%) $259.7m (16.9%) $371.3m (48.1%) 23.4% (2.5%) $3.66 (14.7%)
2025 $1.2b (7.6%) $290.3m (11.8%) $171.6m (-53.8%) 24.3% (3.8%) $4.05 (10.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model