Discounted Cash Flow

Antero Resources Corp.

AR · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.7b $-848.8m $1.2b -48.7% $-2.88
2017 $3.7b (109.5%) $615.1m (172.5%) $2.0b (61.6%) 16.8% (134.6%)
2018 $4.1b (13.2%) $-397.5m (-164.6%) $2.1b (3.8%) -9.6% (-157.1%) $-1.26
2019 $4.4b (6.5%) $-340.1m (14.4%) $-318.7m (-115.3%) -7.7% (19.7%) $-1.11 (11.9%)
2020 $3.5b (-20.8%) $-1.3b (-272.8%) $-138.7m (56.5%) -36.3% (-370.7%) $-4.65 (-318.9%)
2021 $4.6b (32.3%) $-186.9m (85.3%) $944.2m (780.7%) -4.0% (88.9%) $-0.61 (86.9%)
2022 $7.1b (54.5%) $1.9b (1115.9%) $2.1b (123.2%) 26.6% (757.4%) $6.18 (1113.1%)
2023 $4.7b (-34.4%) $242.9m (-87.2%) $827.2m (-60.7%) 5.2% (-80.5%) $0.81 (-86.9%)
2024 $4.3b (-7.6%) $57.2m (-76.4%) $57.2m (-93.1%) 1.3% (-74.5%) $0.18 (-77.8%)
2025 $5.3b (22.0%) $634.4m (1008.6%) $1.2b (2072.3%) 12.0% (808.9%) $2.05 (1038.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model