Discounted Cash Flow

Ares Management Corp.

ARES · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.2b $111.8m $-637.6m 9.3%
2017 $1.4b (18.0%) $76.2m (-31.9%) $76.2m (111.9%) 5.4% (-42.3%)
2018 $1.2b (-13.9%) $57.0m (-25.1%) $57.0m (-25.1%) 4.7% (-13.0%)
2019 $1.4b (17.6%) $148.9m (161.1%) $148.9m (161.1%) 10.4% (122.0%)
2020 $1.8b (23.1%) $152.1m (2.2%) $-425.7m (-385.9%) 8.6% (-17.0%)
2021 $4.2b (138.8%) $408.8m (168.7%) $-2.6b (-509.9%) 9.7% (12.5%)
2022 $3.1b (-27.5%) $167.5m (-59.0%) $-769.9m (70.3%) 5.5% (-43.5%)
2023 $3.6b (18.9%) $474.3m (183.1%) $-300.4m (61.0%) 13.1% (138.2%)
2024 $3.9b (7.0%) $463.7m (-2.2%) $2.7b (998.6%) 11.9% (-8.6%)
2025 $5.6b (44.2%) $527.4m (13.7%) $3.2b (18.3%) 9.4% (-21.1%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model