Discounted Cash Flow

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. REIT

ARI · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

DCF estimate unavailable — loss_in_2024

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $200.6m $157.9m $118.9m 78.7%
2017 $260.5m (29.8%) $193.0m (22.3%) $154.9m (30.3%) 74.1% (-5.8%)
2018 $289.3m (11.1%) $220.0m (14.0%) $266.0m (71.7%) 76.0% (2.6%)
2019 $334.5m (15.6%) $230.2m (4.6%) $273.4m (2.8%) 68.8% (-9.5%)
2020 $278.7m (-16.7%) $18.4m (-92.0%) $164.1m (-40.0%) 6.6% (-90.4%)
2021 $265.6m (-4.7%) $223.5m (1116.3%) $199.4m (21.5%) 84.2% (1176.2%)
2022 $241.6m (-9.0%) $265.2m (18.7%) $234.7m (17.7%) 109.8% (30.5%)
2023 $252.2m (4.4%) $58.6m (-77.9%) $201.2m (-14.2%) 23.2% (-78.8%)
2024 $199.0m (-21.1%) $-119.2m (-303.6%) $30.8m (-84.7%) -59.9% (-358.0%)
2025 $166.7m (-16.2%) $127.1m (206.5%) $42.3m (37.6%) 76.2% (227.2%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model

loss_in_2024

Once the company meets all DCF eligibility criteria (sufficient history, profitability, growth trends), an estimate will become available automatically. No action is needed.