Discounted Cash Flow

Arrow Financial Corp.

AROW · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $26.5m $33.3m $1.98
2017 $29.3m (10.5%) $35.2m (5.9%) $2.11 (6.6%)
2018 $36.3m (23.7%) $36.9m (4.7%) $2.52 (19.4%)
2019 $37.5m (3.3%) $36.2m (-1.9%) $2.51 (-0.4%)
2020 $40.8m (8.9%) $37.2m (2.8%) $2.64 (5.2%)
2021 $49.9m (22.1%) $61.1m (64.2%) $3.11 (17.8%)
2022 $48.8m (-2.1%) $45.5m (-25.6%) $2.95 (-5.1%)
2023 $30.1m (-38.4%) $13.5m (-70.3%) $1.77 (-40.0%)
2024 $29.7m (-1.2%) $28.9m (113.9%) $1.77 (0.0%)
2025 $44.0m (47.9%) $36.2m (25.3%) $2.65 (49.7%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model