Discounted Cash Flow

Astrana Health, Inc.

ASTH · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $44.0m $-9.3m $21.7m -21.2% $0.46
2017 $357.7m (712.2%) $25.8m (376.1%) $49.8m (130.2%) 7.2% (134.0%) $1.01 (119.6%)
2018 $519.9m (45.3%) $10.8m (-58.0%) $24.3m (-51.2%) 2.1% (-71.1%) $0.33 (-67.3%)
2019 $560.6m (7.8%) $14.1m (30.3%) $12.6m (-48.1%) 2.5% (20.8%) $0.41 (24.2%)
2020 $687.2m (22.6%) $37.9m (168.2%) $45.0m (256.2%) 5.5% (118.8%) $1.04 (153.7%)
2021 $773.9m (12.6%) $73.9m (95.1%) $51.1m (13.6%) 9.5% (73.2%) $1.69 (62.5%)
2022 $1.1b (47.8%) $45.2m (-38.8%) $59.2m (15.8%) 3.9% (-58.6%) $1.00 (-40.8%)
2023 $1.4b (21.2%) $60.7m (34.4%) $39.7m (-32.9%) 4.4% (10.9%) $1.30 (30.0%)
2024 $2.0b (46.7%) $43.1m (-28.9%) $44.2m (11.3%) 2.1% (-51.6%) $0.91 (-30.0%)
2025 $3.2b (56.4%) $22.5m (-47.9%) $104.5m (136.6%) 0.7% (-66.7%) $0.46 (-49.5%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model