Discounted Cash Flow

Avista Corp.

AVA · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $1.4b $137.2m $-48.4m 9.5% $2.16
2017 $1.4b (0.2%) $115.9m (-15.5%) $-2.0m (95.8%) 8.0% (-15.7%) $1.80 (-16.7%)
2018 $1.4b (-3.4%) $136.4m (17.7%) $-62.5m (-2960.5%) 9.8% (21.8%) $2.08 (15.6%)
2019 $1.3b (-3.7%) $197.0m (44.4%) $-44.3m (29.1%) 14.6% (49.9%) $2.98 (43.3%)
2020 $1.3b (-1.8%) $129.5m (-34.3%) $-73.3m (-65.5%) 9.8% (-33.1%) $1.91 (-35.9%)
2021 $1.4b (8.9%) $147.3m (13.8%) $-172.6m (-135.5%) 10.2% (4.5%) $2.11 (10.5%)
2022 $1.7b (18.9%) $155.2m (5.3%) $-327.8m (-89.9%) 9.1% (-11.4%) $2.13 (0.9%)
2023 $1.8b (2.4%) $171.2m (10.3%) $-51.6m (84.3%) 9.8% (7.7%) $2.24 (5.2%)
2024 $1.9b (10.6%) $180.0m (5.2%) $1.0m (101.9%) 9.3% (-5.0%) $2.29 (2.2%)
2025 $2.0b (1.3%) $193.0m (7.2%) $-101.0m (-10200.0%) 9.8% (5.8%) $2.38 (3.9%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model