Discounted Cash Flow
Avalonbay Communities Inc. REIT
—
—
Average annual growth rates
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)
| Metric | 10-Year | 5-Year | 3-Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | — | — | — |
| Free Cash Flow | — | — | — |
| Average (FCF & NI) | — | — | — |
| Net Income | — | — | — |
Projected growth rate
—
—
%
%
Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)
| YEAR | Sales | Net Income | Free Cash Flow | Net Margin | EPS (diluted) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | $2.0b | $1.0b | $1.1b | 50.6% | $7.53 |
| 2017 | $2.2b (5.5%) | $876.9m (-15.2%) | $1.2b (9.7%) | 40.6% (-19.6%) | $6.36 (-15.5%) |
| 2018 | $3.6m (-99.8%) | $974.5m (11.1%) | $1.3b (4.0%) | 27282.3% (67058.2%) | $7.05 (10.8%) |
| 2019 | $5.0m (38.9%) | $-129.0k (-100.0%) | $-129.0k (-100.0%) | -2.6% (-100.0%) | $5.64 (-20.0%) |
| 2020 | $3.8m (-23.0%) | $-76.0k (41.1%) | $-76.0k (41.1%) | -2.0% (23.5%) | $5.89 (4.4%) |
| 2021 | $3.1m (-19.2%) | $-57.0k (25.0%) | $-57.0k (25.0%) | -1.8% (7.1%) | $7.19 (22.1%) |
| 2022 | $6.3m (105.4%) | $337.0k (691.2%) | $337.0k (691.2%) | 5.3% (387.9%) | $8.13 (13.1%) |
| 2023 | $7.7m (21.9%) | $387.0k (14.8%) | $387.0k (14.8%) | 5.0% (-5.8%) | $6.56 (-19.3%) |
| 2024 | $7.1m (-8.3%) | $-181.0k (-146.8%) | $-181.0k (-146.8%) | -2.6% (-151.0%) | $7.61 (16.0%) |
| 2025 | $7.0m (-0.6%) | $-5.3m (-2827.1%) | $-5.3m (-2827.1%) | -75.2% (-2843.3%) | $7.40 (-2.8%) |
Base FCF: — (latest fiscal year)
Discount rate: % —
Terminal growth: —
Projection period: — years
Alt A decline yrs:
Alt B total yrs:
Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.
Projected cash flows
| Year | Projected cash flow | Discount Factor | Present Value |
|---|
PV of projected FCF: —
Terminal FCF: —
Terminal value: —
PV of terminal value: —
Enterprise value (DCF): —
Current price: —
—Alternative DCF Models
| Model | Fair Value | Upside | PV(FCFs) | PV(Terminal) | Total Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (10yr→TV) | — | — | — | — | 10 + TV |
| Alt A (Gradual Decline) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) | — | — | — | N/A | — |
This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.