Discounted Cash Flow

American Express Co.

AXP · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $5.8b $5.4b $6.1b 93.7%
2017 $6.4b (11.6%) $2.7b (-49.4%) $10.9b (80.3%) 42.5% (-54.7%) $3.00
2018 $40.3b (526.3%) $6.9b (153.0%) $3.5b (-68.0%) 17.2% (-59.6%) $7.93 (164.3%)
2019 $28.2b (-30.2%) $6.8b (-2.3%) $2.5b (-29.5%) 24.0% (39.9%) $8.00 (0.9%)
2020 $22.0b (-22.0%) $3.1b (-53.6%) $-15.0b (-707.1%) 14.3% (-40.6%) $3.77 (-52.9%)
2021 $27.7b (26.1%) $8.1b (157.1%) $13.1b (187.7%) 29.1% (103.8%) $10.04 (166.3%)
2022 $34.2b (23.5%) $7.5b (-6.8%) $16.9b (28.8%) 22.0% (-24.5%) $9.86 (-1.8%)
2023 $37.2b (8.8%) $8.4b (11.4%) $17.0b (0.5%) 22.5% (2.5%) $11.23 (13.9%)
2024 $38.8b (4.3%) $10.1b (21.0%) $12.5b (-26.7%) 26.1% (16.0%) $14.04 (25.0%)
2025 $41.3b (6.4%) $10.8b (7.0%) $16.7b (33.8%) 26.2% (0.5%) $15.41 (9.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model