Discounted Cash Flow

Astrazeneca Plc. ADR

AZN · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $23.0b $3.5b $2.7b 15.2% $2.77
2017 $22.5b (-2.3%) $3.0b (-14.2%) $2.3b (-16.6%) 13.4% (-12.2%) $2.37 (-14.4%)
2018 $22.1b (-1.7%) $2.2b (-28.2%) $1.6b (-30.1%) 9.8% (-27.0%) $1.70 (-28.3%)
2019 $24.4b (10.4%) $1.3b (-38.1%) $2.0b (26.3%) 5.5% (-43.9%) $1.03 (-39.4%)
2020 $26.6b (9.2%) $3.2b (139.4%) $3.8b (92.9%) 12.0% (119.3%) $2.44 (136.9%)
2021 $37.4b (40.6%) $112.0m (-96.5%) $5.8b (51.5%) 0.3% (-97.5%) $0.08 (-96.7%)
2022 $44.4b (18.5%) $3.3b (2835.7%) $7.2b (24.5%) 7.4% (2376.7%) $2.12 (2550.0%)
2023 $45.8b (3.3%) $6.0b (81.1%) $6.6b (-9.3%) 13.0% (75.3%) $3.84 (81.1%)
2024 $54.1b (18.0%) $7.0b (18.1%) $7.3b (10.8%) 13.0% (0.1%) $4.54 (18.2%)
2025 $58.7b (8.6%) $10.2b (45.3%) $8.7b (19.2%) 17.4% (33.8%) $6.60 (45.4%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model