Discounted Cash Flow

Autozone Inc.

AZO · Based on 10 years of SEC filings

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2016 $10.6b $1.2b $1.1b 11.7% $41.52
2017 $10.9b (2.4%) $1.3b (3.2%) $1.0b (-6.6%) 11.8% (0.8%) $45.05 (8.5%)
2018 $11.2b (3.1%) $1.3b (4.4%) $1.6b (53.3%) 11.9% (1.3%) $49.59 (10.1%)
2019 $11.9b (5.7%) $1.6b (20.9%) $1.6b (4.7%) 13.6% (14.4%) $64.78 (30.6%)
2020 $12.6b (6.5%) $1.7b (7.2%) $2.3b (38.6%) 13.7% (0.6%) $73.62 (13.6%)
2021 $14.6b (15.8%) $2.2b (25.2%) $2.9b (28.0%) 14.8% (8.1%) $97.60 (32.6%)
2022 $16.3b (11.1%) $2.4b (11.9%) $2.5b (-12.4%) 14.9% (0.8%) $120.83 (23.8%)
2023 $17.5b (7.4%) $2.5b (4.1%) $2.1b (-15.5%) 14.5% (-3.1%) $136.60 (13.1%)
2024 $18.5b (5.9%) $2.7b (5.3%) $1.9b (-9.9%) 14.4% (-0.6%) $153.82 (12.6%)
2025 $18.9b (2.4%) $2.5b (-6.2%) $1.8b (-7.3%) 13.2% (-8.4%) $148.80 (-3.3%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

Values abbreviated: b = billions, m = millions, k = thousands.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model