Discounted Cash Flow

KE Holdings Inc. ADR

BEKE · Based on 10 years of SEC filings · Converted from CNY to USD

Average annual growth rates

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Average annual growth is the mean year-over-year change across each period.

Endpoint CAGR (better for long term trend)

Metric 10-Year 5-Year 3-Year
Sales
Free Cash Flow
Average (FCF & NI)
Net Income

Endpoint CAGR is the compound annual rate from the first to last year in each period.

Projections use average year-over-year growth. Change this in Settings.

Projected growth rate

Free cash flow growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Averaged growth (FCF & NI)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Net income growth
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —
Sales growth (not added to calculations)
10-year: — 5-year: — 3-year: —

Click a greyed-out slider to switch metrics. Slide between the 10-year, 5-year, and 3-year historic growth rates for FCF, net income, or their average.

%
%

Historical inputs (10 fiscal years)

YEAR Sales Net Income Free Cash Flow Net Margin EPS (diluted)
2017
2018 $28.6b $-353.1m $379.4m -1.2% $-1.75
2019 $46.0b (60.6%) $-323.2m (8.5%) $-66.5m (-117.5%) -0.7% (43.0%) $-2.94 (-68.0%)
2020 $10.8b (-76.5%) $63.0m (119.5%) $63.0m (194.7%) 0.6% (183.0%) $0.05 (101.7%)
2021 $12.7b (17.3%) $-12.2m (-119.3%) $401.9m (537.9%) -0.1% (-116.5%) $-0.02 (-140.0%)
2022 $8.8b (-30.6%) $-29.7m (-144.3%) $-29.7m (-107.4%) -0.3% (-252.0%) $-0.06 (-200.0%)
2023 $11.0b (24.5%) $122.6m (512.3%) $122.6m (512.3%) 1.1% (431.1%) $0.24 (500.0%)
2024 $12.8b (16.9%) $82.4m (-32.8%) $82.4m (-32.8%) 0.6% (-42.5%) $0.16 (-33.3%)
2025 $13.5b (5.6%) $63.4m (-23.1%) $-193.9m (-335.3%) 0.5% (-27.2%) $0.13 (-18.8%)

Base FCF: (latest fiscal year)

Discount rate: %

Terminal growth:

Projection period: years

Alt A decline yrs:

Alt B total yrs:

SEC filings report in CNY. Values above are converted to USD for comparison with the US-listed share price.

Projected cash flows

Year Projected cash flow Discount Factor Present Value

PV of projected FCF:

Terminal FCF:

Terminal value:

PV of terminal value:

Enterprise value (DCF):

DCF price per share:

Current price:

Alternative DCF Models

Model Fair Value Upside PV(FCFs) PV(Terminal) Total Years
Standard (10yr→TV) 10 + TV
Alt A (Gradual Decline)
Alt B (30yr Hard Stop) N/A

This is a simplified DCF model for illustration. It uses reported free cash flow, a single growth assumption, fixed WACC, and a Gordon Growth terminal value. It is not investment advice.

+ 10YR Financials Balance Sheet (10YR) Cash Flow (10YR) DCF Model